Month: May 2008
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White Married Christians: The Decline and Fall of the GOP
The most compelling demographic analysis I've seen lately: Alan Abramowitz's "The Incredible Shrinking Republican Base" on Real Clear Politics. Short story: White Married Christians–the combined demographic–is and has been the base of Republicans' victories. Ignore income. Ignore gender. Ignore age. If you're white, married, and Christian, the odds are six or seven in ten that…
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Pubs and Dems: Brands and Beliefs
There's a pretty stunning new NPR poll out (PDF) (conducted by one Republican and one Democrat) showing that Pubs actually prefer Democratic policies by wide margins. This is Very Good News. But what's amazing is how brainwashed Pubs are by party affiliation, compared to Dems. If their beliefs aren't validated by Herr Comrade Party Leader,…
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McCain on a Roll? Not.
Since emerging as the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain's primary results have been tepid by any measure. 5/27-ID 70%5/20-OR 855/20-KY 725/13-WV 765/6-IN 785/6-NC 744/22-PA 734/11-MS 79 Compare George Bush's primary results after sealing the nomination–consistently in the high 90s. McCain has broken 80% exactly once, and his latest–70% in Idaho–is his lowest number yet. If…
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Choosing a VP For All the Right Reason
Speaking of who Obama should choose as a running mate, David Brooks thinks "He should be thinking about who can help him govern successfully so he can get re-elected." This reminds me of a scene from The West Wing. Jed Bartlett is trying to decide whether to run again with John Hoynes, with whom he…
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David Brooks on McCain: Who’s Talking, Who’s Doing?
In his NYT Op-Ed today, David Brooks makes a very good point: McCain has infinitely better grounds than Obama to run as a do-what-it-takes reformer. He has a long record of taking on not only the other party, but his own. Case in point: McCain voted against the farm bill, a bill that’s uniformly vilified…
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Europe vs. US: Who’s Winning?
Update June 2012: See data through 2010 here. People love to cherry-pick statistics to show that the US, or Europe, is winning the growth game. That got me curious: if you look at all the possible growth periods, who’s ahead (most)? Short answer: no clear winner. The results look pretty random. Over the longest periods,…