Month: June 2013
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One Place Where Mankiw Makes Absolutely No Sense at All
In his Defending the One Percent paper, Greg Mankiw is rather grudgingly acknowledging rent-seeking (and -getting) in the financial industry, and the allocation of top talent to that industry. He sez: The last thing we need is for the next Steve Jobs to forgo Silicon Valley in order to join the high-frequency traders on Wall Street.…
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What Caused the (Next) Housing Bubble? (Six Graphs)
Political Calculations gives us this chart of median new home prices versus median incomes over the last 46 years. The rising tip at the upper right (!) is May 2013. What do you think: sustainable? Here’s the zoomed-in version of recent years, from inside the red dashes: As they say, …new homes are, virtually by definition, at the…
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Steve Randy Waldman for Treasury Secretary
Just read this too-modestly titled post, and all the links as needed, until you understand it all the way down to your bones: A quick note on “helicopter drops†Kudos also to David Beckworth and Cardiff Garcia. Cross-posted at Angry Bear. Related posts: A Surfeit of Dearth Revisited: The Global Shortage of Safe Assets David Beckworth…
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Michael Woodford and Adair Turner Agree: CBs Won’t (and Shouldn’t) Sell the Bonds Back
Old news: April 3. But still: Following up on yesterday’s post, see here from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Telegraph (emphasis mine): “All this talk of exit strategies is deeply negative,” [Woodford] told a London Business School seminar on the merits of Helicopter money, or “overt monetary financing”. He said the Bank of Japan made the mistake of…
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Defining “Reserves”
I’ve run into quite a bit of confusion in conversations discussing bank reserves, and found occasion to get precise on the usage in recent comments. I thought I’d share it with others. This has been vetted by several who are more worthy than I, so I feel quite confident in offering it up. 1. “Reserve…
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About that “Wealth Effect”: Not so Much…
Economists like to say that their discipline is the study of scarcity, or even the science of scarcity. But I’d like to suggest that — acknowledging that it’s a behavioral, social “science” — it’s actually the study of human reaction functions: If X happens, how do people (individually and as groups) react? But unlike other…
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The Market Doesn’t Think the Fed Will Ever Sell Those Bonds Back
You know the trillion dollars a year of Treasury and GSE bonds that the Fed’s buying up? (And the $3-trillion+ it’s already holding?) It’s driving up bond prices and suppressing yields, right? And if it starts selling them back, it will drive down prices and increase yields, right? The market should be front-running that, right?…
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Do Collateral Chains Create Real Value?
Some of the keenest monetary thinkers out there, over at FT Alphaville — Izabella Kaminska, Cardiff Garcia, etc. (I’ll even throw in Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge, with qualifications) — have been pointing us for years towards the work of IMF Senior Economist Manmohan Singh on collateral chains in financial markets. He provides wonderfully cogent explanation of…
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If Interest Rates Rise, We Can Plummet the National Debt!
Dean Baker makes what seems to be a stunningly obvious point, one that I haven’t seen discussed anywhere. Condensed and with emphasis added for your consideration: …the value of our [government] debt will plummet if interest rates rise… we could buy back long-term debt issued today at interest rates of less than 2.0 percent for discounts of…