Then there’s this little-discussed fact about global warming: While the drumbeat of doom has grown louder over the past several years, the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased.
This “fact” is true…but only if you calculate forward from 1998–one of the two hottest years in history (2005 was hotter).
It’s not true if you calculate from 1997, or 1999, or any other year “over the past several years” except 2005.
It’s not true.
It’s childishly obvious statistical cherry picking, delivered by a man who has spent his professional life working with statistics.
You don’t need a statistician to figure out what’s going in this graph. But if you want some, the AP hired several:
Statisticians reject global cooling.
This all putting aside the fact that the purported “fact” is far from “little-discussed.” The wingnuts have been proclaiming it from the mountaintops for years. By pretending it is a fact, Levitt gives aid and comfort to the enemies of mankind.
The only explanations I can imagine for this incorrect statement are 1. intentional deception or 2. gross professional negligence.
Given the dismissive and contemptuous “drumbeat of doom” language, #1 becomes a more likely possibility.
Comments
One response to “One Completely False Statement in Superfreakonomics”
Anomaly generation is sensitive to base year selection. Using NCDC methods will give you a slightly different result in calculating decadal trends. NCDC has a warming bias and MSU trends are slightly lower. Correlation between the two series is .77 which shows that they are measuring different things. NCDC is measuring trends over the last century and MSU and all other anomaly measurements are measuring deviation from a more recent average which is thought to encompass significant historical warming and cooling trends that make up some of the natural variability of climate. If we look at the other anomaly measurements we find high correlation among them whether it is CRU or MSU or GISS. They are measuring the same things. They are showing that realtive to historical base year averages that significant warming has slowed and remained relatively flat for the past 10 years or so. I would not say that the staticians are wrong given the selection of the data set used but keep in mind that you could be looking at selection bias.
Global Average Anomaly
M – Y UAH NCDC
Jan-79 -0.15 0.072
Feb-79 -0.15 0.0436
Mar-79 -0.14 0.1784
Apr-79 -0.17 0.0376
May-79 -0.16 0.0864
Jun-79 -0.14 0.1507
Jul-79 -0.04 0.1109
Aug-79 -0.16 0.1412
Sep-79 0.02 0.1698
Oct-79 0.13 0.2142
Nov-79 0.01 0.2122
Dec-79 0.1 0.4219
Jan-80 0.03 0.2107
Feb-80 0.12 0.2506
Mar-80 0.01 0.1677
Apr-80 0.14 0.2593
May-80 0.16 0.2548
Jun-80 0.1 0.1954
Jul-80 0.08 0.1476
Aug-80 0.12 0.1376
Sep-80 0.19 0.1395
Oct-80 0.09 0.1083
Nov-80 0.11 0.2504
Dec-80 -0.07 0.1938
Jan-81 0.12 0.3705
Feb-81 0.17 0.2794
Mar-81 0.13 0.3347
Apr-81 0 0.2907
May-81 0.05 0.2007
Jun-81 -0.02 0.2148
Jul-81 0.05 0.1571
Aug-81 0.05 0.1787
Sep-81 0.02 0.1251
Oct-81 -0.01 0.1005
Nov-81 -0.02 0.1347
Dec-81 0.12 0.3541
Jan-82 -0.11 0.0591
Feb-82 -0.1 0.0752
Mar-82 -0.25 0.0242
Apr-82 -0.14 0.148
May-82 -0.15 0.1259
Jun-82 -0.1 0.0747
Jul-82 -0.25 0.0957
Aug-82 -0.19 0.0927
Sep-82 -0.15 0.1508
Oct-82 -0.23 0.1035
Nov-82 -0.13 0.0863
Dec-82 -0.01 0.3684
Jan-83 0.12 0.4345
Feb-83 -0.02 0.4089
Mar-83 0.25 0.3448
Apr-83 0.16 0.2309
May-83 0.19 0.2529
Jun-83 -0.08 0.2153
Jul-83 0.13 0.2368
Aug-83 0.06 0.258
Sep-83 0.08 0.253
Oct-83 -0.09 0.1586
Nov-83 -0.04 0.3792
Dec-83 -0.31 0.2069
Jan-84 -0.32 0.1979
Feb-84 -0.19 0.0895
Mar-84 -0.12 0.1947
Apr-84 -0.22 0.0906
May-84 -0.04 0.2206
Jun-84 -0.22 0.084
Jul-84 -0.26 0.0815
Aug-84 -0.2 0.1102
Sep-84 -0.49 0.0624
Oct-84 -0.19 0.0648
Nov-84 -0.42 -0.0153
Dec-84 -0.39 -0.1315
Jan-85 -0.16 0.1014
Feb-85 -0.22 -0.0511
Mar-85 -0.13 0.1283
Apr-85 -0.2 0.096
May-85 -0.24 0.138
Jun-85 -0.24 0.0707
Jul-85 -0.37 0.0164
Aug-85 -0.2 0.0665
Sep-85 -0.2 0.0321
Oct-85 -0.29 0.0662
Nov-85 -0.15 0.0578
Dec-85 -0.14 0.0952
Jan-86 -0.03 0.2317
Feb-86 -0.17 0.1795
Mar-86 -0.15 0.2212
Apr-86 -0.03 0.1963
May-86 -0.04 0.1941
Jun-86 -0.15 0.2046
Jul-86 -0.18 0.12
Aug-86 -0.23 0.1138
Sep-86 -0.26 0.1056
Oct-86 -0.26 0.1354
Nov-86 -0.11 0.0887
Dec-86 -0.14 0.1343
Jan-87 0.14 0.2259
Feb-87 0.19 0.4272
Mar-87 -0.08 0.1767
Apr-87 0.11 0.2455
May-87 -0.04 0.2819
Jun-87 0.15 0.2352
Jul-87 0.12 0.3517
Aug-87 0.03 0.3105
Sep-87 0.05 0.3579
Oct-87 0.21 0.2423
Nov-87 0.09 0.2631
Dec-87 0.36 0.4438
Jan-88 0.27 0.4589
Feb-88 0.03 0.2941
Mar-88 0.22 0.4029
Apr-88 0.06 0.3672
May-88 0.1 0.3045
Jun-88 0.1 0.3239
Jul-88 0.19 0.2848
Aug-88 0.16 0.2479
Sep-88 0.28 0.2499
Oct-88 0.12 0.2321
Nov-88 -0.08 0.1615
Dec-88 -0.13 0.2789
Jan-89 -0.33 0.1296
Feb-89 -0.18 0.2247
Mar-89 -0.2 0.2646
Apr-89 -0.11 0.1981
May-89 -0.22 0.2124
Jun-89 -0.21 0.2131
Jul-89 -0.1 0.2411
Aug-89 -0.06 0.2367
Sep-89 0.06 0.228
Oct-89 0.04 0.2289
Nov-89 -0.07 0.1813
Dec-89 0.07 0.3091
Jan-90 0 0.2978
Feb-90 -0.14 0.363
Mar-90 0.1 0.6633
Apr-90 0.01 0.4406
May-90 0.1 0.3742
Jun-90 0.1 0.3486
Jul-90 0.05 0.2896
Aug-90 0.02 0.3141
Sep-90 0 0.2834
Oct-90 0.13 0.3708
Nov-90 0.32 0.4774
Dec-90 0.22 0.4097
Jan-91 0.13 0.3936
Feb-91 0.17 0.4065
Mar-91 0.29 0.2916
Apr-91 0.13 0.4609
May-91 0.17 0.3492
Jun-91 0.34 0.4177
Jul-91 0.2 0.3783
Aug-91 0.22 0.3058
Sep-91 0.07 0.2936
Oct-91 -0.04 0.2625
Nov-91 -0.1 0.258
Dec-91 -0.12 0.2136
Jan-92 -0.03 0.4147
Feb-92 -0.13 0.4027
Mar-92 -0.01 0.3656
Apr-92 -0.18 0.2515
May-92 -0.18 0.2858
Jun-92 -0.19 0.231
Jul-92 -0.33 0.0909
Aug-92 -0.39 0.0769
Sep-92 -0.35 0.028
Oct-92 -0.13 0.0366
Nov-92 -0.15 0.0058
Dec-92 -0.22 0.2373
Jan-93 -0.24 0.339
Feb-93 -0.19 0.335
Mar-93 -0.35 0.37
Apr-93 -0.22 0.257
May-93 -0.17 0.2743
Jun-93 -0.06 0.2431
Jul-93 -0.04 0.1963
Aug-93 -0.18 0.1698
Sep-93 -0.29 0.115
Oct-93 -0.06 0.195
Nov-93 -0.06 0.0726
Dec-93 0.08 0.2011
Jan-94 0.01 0.2327
Feb-94 -0.13 0.0139
Mar-94 -0.13 0.3217
Apr-94 -0.05 0.327
May-94 -0.06 0.3454
Jun-94 0.06 0.3113
Jul-94 0.04 0.2725
Aug-94 -0.06 0.2591
Sep-94 0.06 0.2674
Oct-94 -0.13 0.3931
Nov-94 0.14 0.4119
Dec-94 0.12 0.3651
Jan-95 0.13 0.5019
Feb-95 0.08 0.669
Mar-95 -0.02 0.4285
Apr-95 0.21 0.3538
May-95 0.07 0.2619
Jun-95 0.13 0.4258
Jul-95 0.1 0.3758
Aug-95 0.28 0.4491
Sep-95 0.23 0.3433
Oct-95 0.11 0.3844
Nov-95 0.15 0.3945
Dec-95 -0.13 0.2994
Jan-96 -0.09 0.2149
Feb-96 0.1 0.3748
Mar-96 0.08 0.2764
Apr-96 -0.05 0.2284
May-96 -0.11 0.3508
Jun-96 -0.12 0.3126
Jul-96 -0.01 0.2861
Aug-96 0.12 0.2673
Sep-96 0.15 0.2245
Oct-96 0.08 0.2119
Nov-96 0.12 0.2336
Dec-96 0.01 0.3225
Jan-97 -0.07 0.3231
Feb-97 0.01 0.4007
Mar-97 -0.03 0.437
Apr-97 -0.21 0.4135
May-97 -0.05 0.3996
Jun-97 0 0.5037
Jul-97 0.09 0.475
Aug-97 0.1 0.4981
Sep-97 0.09 0.5897
Oct-97 0.14 0.6033
Nov-97 0.2 0.5006
Dec-97 0.31 0.5937
Jan-98 0.58 0.5656
Feb-98 0.76 0.8288
Mar-98 0.53 0.606
Apr-98 0.76 0.7107
May-98 0.65 0.6311
Jun-98 0.57 0.6407
Jul-98 0.52 0.6981
Aug-98 0.51 0.67
Sep-98 0.43 0.5011
Oct-98 0.39 0.4396
Nov-98 0.19 0.3605
Dec-98 0.29 0.5124
Jan-99 0.17 0.4773
Feb-99 0.3 0.6627
Mar-99 0.02 0.3216
Apr-99 0.05 0.4464
May-99 -0.01 0.3785
Jun-99 -0.13 0.4001
Jul-99 0 0.3979
Aug-99 -0.06 0.3618
Sep-99 0.09 0.3624
Oct-99 0.03 0.3575
Nov-99 0.02 0.3303
Dec-99 0.01 0.5418
Jan-00 -0.19 0.2901
Feb-00 0.08 0.4861
Mar-00 0.06 0.4839
Apr-00 0.11 0.6193
May-00 0.1 0.4605
Jun-00 0.04 0.3923
Jul-00 -0.01 0.3762
Aug-00 -0.05 0.4354
Sep-00 0.08 0.4001
Oct-00 0.06 0.2713
Nov-00 0.1 0.1892
Dec-00 0.05 0.2585
Jan-01 0.1 0.4262
Feb-01 0.24 0.3811
Mar-01 0.16 0.6047
Apr-01 0.25 0.5307
May-01 0.24 0.5578
Jun-01 0.04 0.5394
Jul-01 0.14 0.5389
Aug-01 0.31 0.5827
Sep-01 0.13 0.4701
Oct-01 0.24 0.472
Nov-01 0.28 0.6459
Dec-01 0.28 0.4579
Jan-02 0.4 0.661
Feb-02 0.41 0.7628
Mar-02 0.38 0.7367
Apr-02 0.3 0.536
May-02 0.34 0.5375
Jun-02 0.35 0.581
Jul-02 0.3 0.5928
Aug-02 0.24 0.5141
Sep-02 0.28 0.5297
Oct-02 0.18 0.4546
Nov-02 0.35 0.5688
Dec-02 0.25 0.4079
Jan-03 0.48 0.6411
Feb-03 0.4 0.5456
Mar-03 0.22 0.5237
Apr-03 0.2 0.4957
May-03 0.24 0.5655
Jun-03 0.06 0.5249
Jul-03 0.18 0.5414
Aug-03 0.17 0.5899
Sep-03 0.23 0.6033
Oct-03 0.35 0.7051
Nov-03 0.32 0.5369
Dec-03 0.47 0.6973
Jan-04 0.37 0.5502
Feb-04 0.43 0.6714
Mar-04 0.45 0.6444
Apr-04 0.2 0.559
May-04 0.07 0.4311
Jun-04 0.05 0.4694
Jul-04 -0.12 0.4543
Aug-04 0 0.4549
Sep-04 0.15 0.491
Oct-04 0.29 0.5626
Nov-04 0.25 0.7244
Dec-04 0.2 0.4775
Jan-05 0.49 0.5644
Feb-05 0.41 0.4455
Mar-05 0.35 0.6517
Apr-05 0.41 0.6703
May-05 0.22 0.6221
Jun-05 0.26 0.6578
Jul-05 0.33 0.6417
Aug-05 0.19 0.5819
Sep-05 0.35 0.6574
Oct-05 0.39 0.648
Nov-05 0.4 0.682
Dec-05 0.29 0.5534
Jan-06 0.37 0.4024
Feb-06 0.45 0.5429
Mar-06 0.33 0.5277
Apr-06 0.18 0.4588
May-06 -0.01 0.4881
Jun-06 0.16 0.6119
Jul-06 0.21 0.5784
Aug-06 0.26 0.5635
Sep-06 0.27 0.594
Oct-06 0.34 0.6324
Nov-06 0.29 0.5856
Dec-06 0.31 0.7137
Jan-07 0.59 0.8137
Feb-07 0.46 0.5858
Mar-07 0.4 0.5976
Apr-07 0.24 0.6707
May-07 0.21 0.5069
Jun-07 0.21 0.4709
Jul-07 0.26 0.4715
Aug-07 0.29 0.4794
Sep-07 0.2 0.5382
Oct-07 0.23 0.5107
Nov-07 0.21 0.4716
Dec-07 0.11 0.4285
Jan-08 -0.05 0.2177
Feb-08 0.03 0.346
Mar-08 0.09 0.7062
Apr-08 0.02 0.4297
May-08 -0.18 0.4331
Jun-08 -0.11 0.4826
Jul-08 0.06 0.5083
Aug-08 -0.01 0.4841
Sep-08 0.16 0.4566
Oct-08 0.16 0.6058
Nov-08 0.25 0.5998
Dec-08 0.18 0.48
Jan-09 0.3 0.4962
Feb-09 0.35 0.481
Mar-09 0.21 0.5111
Apr-09 0.09 0.5873
May-09 0.05 0.5281
Jun-09 0.01 0.6045
Jul-09 0.42 0.5609
Aug-09 0.23 0.6043
Sep-09 0.42 0.6181
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat