Everything Sez: “Obama Landslide.” What Gives?
Update: If you're looking for conservative polling, click here.
We all know that national polls tell us nothing about what's gonna happen in November. (See, for instance, this very funny post.)
But still. The national polls seem way out of synch with every other indicator. Obama and McCain have been nearly tied for months (with Obama generally up one to four percent), and some post-Palin polls show McCain with a big lead. (Obama's been leading handily in electoral votes—see fivethirtyeight.com—but even that's getting razor thin.)
What's with that? Everything else says otherwise (most recent that I could dig up quickly):
Dems rule, 36% to 27%.
Even Republicans prefer Democratic policies. As an example, Only 38% of Republicans support Republican tax policies. (Unless you tell them it's a Republican policy.)
Since 2006, Dem registrations are up by 2 million (in the 28 states that register by party). Pubs are down by 344,000.
As of July, Obama had 2 million donors. McCain had 600,000.
Donations from the Military (>$200)
Obama/McCain Donors: 859 to 558 (61% Obama). Dollars: $336K to $281K (55% Obama).
Donations from soldiers deployed abroad
Obama has a 6:1 dollar advantage and a 5:1 donor advantage. (Obama: 134 for $60K; McCain: 26 for $11K.)
Obama has at least a 3:1 advantage in field offices (338 to 101), and perhaps as much as a 35-to-1 advantage in voter contacts. (This last is the iffiest number reported here.)
56% of voters are "excited to be voting for" Obama, versus 34% for McCain. (Pre-Palin, McCain's enthusiasm number was 12.)
Feel free to list others.
Everything says that Democratic turnout will swamp the 'pubs, and Obama will win this thing walking away.
Except the national polls.
Especially perplexing are the polls that tally both registered and
likely voters, and show a bigger McCain lead in the LV tallies. Per the
above: doesn't everything suggest that a higher percentage of Obama
supporters will turn out? I don't get it.
I can think of two reasons for the big disparity:
Despite the Dem slant in party affiliations/preferences, 60% of American's consider themselves to be "conservative." (PDF) For "liberal," it's 36%.
Obama is Black
Only 84% of Americans say they would be "completely comfortable voting for a black presidential candidate." And you gotta figure that number overstates reality.