Month: April 2013

  • Yowza. Now Even AEI is Dissing Austerity.

    Fiscal austerity–or deficit cutting–is the subject of much current debate. As Europe proves, severe austerity can slow growth or lead to recession. Despite periodic slowdowns, the US economy is on a sustainable fiscal path. The deficit is projected to drop below 2.5 percent of GDP by 2017, below its 30-year average, helped partially by the…

  • “Yes, the government must pay its bills in the long run.” (Every few centuries?) Questions for Krugman.

    I’d like to push back on Paul Krugman a bit, on this bit in particular: Yes, the government must pay its bills in the long run You hear this from him a lot. And I want to ask him: Paul, are you letting yourself be sucked into the very syndrome that you so bemoan and…

  • Currency is Equity, Equity is Currency

    This is utterly brilliant: Twitter / izakaminska: Why equity is a type of privately issued currency Steve Randy Waldman has been here before, with the idea that currency issued by government (ultimately through deficit spending) is “equity” in government, or in America. But this reverses it beautifully, with the notion that private equity issuance is…

  • Do Savers “Take Resources out of Society”?

    Revisiting a previous post, “Saving” ≠ “Saving Resources”*, wherein I question Scott Sumner’s notion that people who spend and consume more (save less) take resources “out of society.” Try this: John works for Debbie, and Debbie works for John. They each start out with $100 in dollar bills, $200 total. They pay each other in…

  • All Currency is “Fiat” Currency

    Or to be more precise, all currency is consensus currency. Units of exchange (dollar bills, great big rocks at the bottom of the ocean) can have value merely because everyone in a community agrees that they have value. That value need not be declared, defined, or enforced by some “fiat” authority with powers of (ultimately physical)…

  • Full Cred and Props to Reinhart & Rogoff and the BEA: They Collected the Data

    The other day I dissed the analysis in Reinhart and Rogoff’s Growth in a Time of Debt as being on the level of a blog post from an amateur internet econocrank. I still hold that opinion. But I want to walk back on that, or at least clarify, and give lots of credit where due. Because they did make…

  • Identity Games: Saving ≠ Saving? Whodathunkit?

    I finally figured out a simple way to explain my confusion (and that of many others, including many economists) with the whole Saving issue. I may also have figured out a useful solution to that confusion, which I present at the bottom here for my gentle readers’ delectation and denunciation. Econ profs: I’m really curious.…

  • Note to Reinhart/Rogoff (et. al): The Cause Usually Precedes the Effect

    Or: Thinking About Periods and Lags No need to rehash this cock-up, except to point to the utterly definitive takedown by Arindrajit Dube over at Next New Deal (hat tip: Krugman), and to point out that the takedown might just take even if you’re looking at R&R’s original, skewed data. But a larger point: I frequently see econometrics…

  • Okay Fine, Let’s Call Investment “Saving.” Or…Not

    I really like Hellestal’s comment and linguistic take on this whole business: I’m comfortable changing my language in order to communicate. I have very little patience for people who aren’t similarly capable of changing their definitions. This discussion is really about the words we use to describe different accounting constructs. Nick totally gets that as…

  • Saving, Investment, and Lending in the Real Economy (Graphs). S=I?

    With all the chaff that’s been flying around (recently, and for years now) about saving and investment, dissaving, and lending/borrowing, I felt the need to go back to the numbers and see how they’ve played out over the decades in what we tend to call the “real” economy — domestic households and nonfinancial business. Click…

  • Reading Mankiw in Seattle

    A while back Nick Rowe challenged amateur internet econocranks (my word, not Nick’s) like me to actually go read an intro econ textbook. (He was specifically targeting the author of Unlearning Economics — who I, at least, don’t consider to be an econocrank, he’s far better-versed than I am,  though Nick might.) I took him…

  • Solow on Bernanke (and both, on Libertopians)

    I’m just sayin’. (Emphasis mine, words Solow’s): [Bernanke’s] preferred answer is better and more system-oriented regulation. One has to ask then why regulation failed to see the crisis of 2007–2008 coming and take action to head it off. Bernanke suggests that regulators were lulled into inattention by the so-called Great Moderation. Our masters are all too…

  • How Money Moves

    The title should actually be “How Dollar Bills Move,” but it’s not as alliterative. A fascinating item on the work of Dirk Brockmann, who’s used WheresGeorge.com to map the movement of dollar bills, and the boundaries over which they’re least likely to cross: I have no idea what to do with this, or whether it even has any…

  • Saving and “Government Saving”

    Steve Randy Waldman and Scott Sumner (plus many others, linked from Steve’s post) wade in on notions of saving and investment. (I’m endlessly amazed that the best econothinkers on the web — add Nick Rowe, Andy Harless, David Beckworth, Josh Mason, and many others to the list — constantly feel the need to think, re-think,…

  • My Patriotic Millionaires Pitch

    Erica Payne sent out a request for writeups from Patriotic Millionaires members, and I provided this. I hate not to re-use perfectly good copy… I live (quite well) off financial investments — no need to work any more — and my taxes every year are ridiculously, embarrassingly low. Meanwhile tens, hundreds of millions of hard workers who…

  • Does Reduced Consumption, and Increased “Saving,” Result in “Capital” Formation?

    Matthew Yglesias riffs off my recent post, “Saving” ≠ “Saving Resources,” and there’s been quite a bit of commentary there, plus on Asymptosis and Angry Bear (plus a bit of twitter talk that I can’t figure out how to link to easily and usefully). There are a dozen things I want to discuss on the topic, but…

  • “Saving” ≠ “Saving Resources”*

    Many economists — mostly the freshwater/neoclassical/supply-side/conservative types, but also many on the left — hold in their heads a very peculiar model of how economies work. It’s a model of a barter/real-goods economy in which money only plays the role of convenience. In this model, if you don’t eat some portion of the corn you…

  • The Great Moderation Just Moderated the Risks of the Rich

    Following up on my earlier post, about people swimming in a stream of economic change over which they have no control: As I often do, I was re-reading some old Steve Randy Waldman posts, and came across one that made the same point quite elegantly: “Stabilizing prices is immoral“. (If you want to understand how economies…

  • Swimming in the Stream: How Economic Forces Force Household Indebtedness

    Update 4/7: Josh brings home the very same point, but regarding sovereign debt, in a new post. If you’re a fish merrily swimming in a stream, is it your fault if a flood — say from a large release from the dam upstream — causes you to be washed out through the sluicegates? Or if…

  • Bernanke (Mis)Explains the Effect of the Tech and Housing Bubbles

    Discussing the failure of modern macro to incorporate the financial system into its models, Ben asks, why did the bursting of the housing bubble spank the economy so much harder than the dot bomb crash? He sez (courtesy Brad DeLong, emphasis mine): …the decline in wealth associated with the tech bubble bursting [in 2001] and…