The Real Delegate Count: Ignoring the Super(fluous) Delegates


It may seem amazing with all the analysis out there, but I had to assemble these basic facts on non-super delegates myself.


  • Pledged delegates will decide it. Superdelegates won’t override because it would cause a nuclear meltdown. (Nightmare scenario: Clinton wins some even-vaguely-construable semblance of the popular vote, somehow assembled from some combination of some states’ primary and caucus results.)
  • Michigan and Florida are meaningless unless they revote. (See “nuclear meltdown,” above.)
  • Various outfits seem confused about how many non-super delegates there are in each state. See NYT, for instance, showing different counters giving different numbers for non-super delegates in states that have already voted. They range from 2,243 to 2,622.
  • The wiki data is unambiguous on the simple facts of how many non-super delegates there are in each state.
  • Wikipedia lists a trivial number of unpledged delegates (16.5:
    Colorado 9, democrats abroad 2.5, Mississippi 5). I allocated these in
    each state according to each candidate’s share of pledged delegates in
    that state.
  • There is some small-change disagreement about delegate-allocation details in some states. But they won’t make any significant difference in the bottom line of percentages needed by each candidate in the future.

Absent a pop-vote anomaly or an Obama meltdown, it’s over.

Obama (and all the rest of us): Time to go after McCain and (sadly) ignore Hillary.

If he wants to look presidential (or at least nominational), that’s the ticket. It’s also his best strategy for the primary.





One response to “The Real Delegate Count: Ignoring the Super(fluous) Delegates”

  1. […] As I pointed out yesterday, that there’s no way she’ll get a lead in pledged […]